Market Insights·25 October 2026·Updated 2 November 2026·3 min read·Altai Capital

Futures positioning, week of 20 October

Where the big speculators are crowded, what changed this week, and how to read it.

What this is. Every Friday the US futures regulator, the CFTC, publishes who holds what in the main futures markets as of the previous Tuesday's close. We follow 51 of them: equity indices, interest rates, currencies, crypto, metals, energy and agriculture. Positions fall into three groups: commercials (producers, dealers and banks hedging their business), large speculators (hedge funds and CTAs) and small traders.

How to read it. Contract counts cannot be compared across markets, so we use the COT index: where large speculators' net position sits within its own three-year range. 0 is the most short they have been in three years and 100 the most long. Above 80 or below 20, the trade is crowded. In bond futures, long means a bet on lower yields.

How to use it. Positioning is context, not a timing signal. An extreme shows which way the pain trade runs if price turns, because a crowded position has to be unwound into the move against it. Crowded trades can stay crowded for months, so look for an extreme together with price starting to move against the crowd. The data is three days old when it is published.

At a three-year extreme

Large speculators' net position at or above 80, or at or below 20, on the three-year COT index.

Market	Net position	Week change	Index	Reading
ZQ 30-day Fed funds	+376,169	+231,272	100	Crowded long (lower yields)
6E Euro FX	−68,840	−839	0	Crowded short
BTC Bitcoin	−4,942	+902	100	Crowded long
SB Sugar #11	+264,530	+4,981	100	Crowded long
NG Natural gas	−157,409	−30,928	1	Crowded short
HE Lean hogs	−46,813	+1,804	2	Crowded short
ZM Soybean meal	+200,878	−3,765	98	Crowded long
ZB UST bond (30y)	−162,757	−8,737	98	Crowded long (lower yields)
RB RBOB gasoline	+93,712	−4,196	94	Crowded long
ZT UST 2-year note	−1,285,548	+81,860	92	Crowded long (lower yields)
ZS Soybeans	+221,325	−28,482	90	Crowded long
SR3 SOFR 3-month	−2,373,040	−127,533	13	Crowded short (higher yields)

7 more markets are also at an extreme.

Biggest weekly swings

The largest changes in large speculators' net position this week, measured against open interest.

Market	Net position	Week change	Of open interest	Index
ZQ 30-day Fed funds	+376,169	+231,272	+8.4%	100
RTY Russell 2000 E-Mini	−53,035	+38,612	+8.3%	47
6L Brazilian real	+18,677	−8,937	−6.6%	82
6N NZ dollar	−19,280	−7,661	−5.8%	27
6B British pound	+24,104	+13,791	+5.4%	38
YM Dow E-Mini	−1,967	−4,776	−5.3%	51
PA Palladium	−11,994	−1,295	−5.2%	25
VX VIX futures	−20,890	−21,995	−5.1%	73

Positions as of the close on Tuesday, 20 October 2026, published Friday 23 October. Large speculators are leveraged funds in financial futures and managed money in commodities. Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders.

This note is published for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. See the full disclaimer in the footer.

Keep reading

Markets

1 November 2026 · 5 min read

Futures positioning, week of 27 October

Where the big speculators are crowded, what changed this week, and how to read it.

Markets

28 October 2026 · 5 min read

Fed holds at 3.75%-4% as Cook and Hammack dissent in favour of a hike

A 10-2 vote kept policy unchanged six days before the midterms. The statement dropped September's tightening language but promised to deliver price stability, and investors still expect a December hike.

Research Summit

11 October 2025 · 2 min read

$NTGR, Netgear Inc. - Likely Regulatory Tailwinds

Netgear represents a compelling opportunity to capitalize on potential U.S. regulatory action against Chinese router manufacturer TP-Link, which commands 65% of the U.S. market.