Market Insights·1 November 2026·Updated 2 November 2026·3 min read·Altai Capital

Futures positioning, week of 27 October

Where the big speculators are crowded, what changed this week, and how to read it.

What this is. Every Friday the US futures regulator, the CFTC, publishes who holds what in the main futures markets as of the previous Tuesday's close. We follow 51 of them: equity indices, interest rates, currencies, crypto, metals, energy and agriculture. Positions fall into three groups: commercials (producers, dealers and banks hedging their business), large speculators (hedge funds and CTAs) and small traders.

How to read it. Contract counts cannot be compared across markets, so we use the COT index: where large speculators' net position sits within its own three-year range. 0 is the most short they have been in three years and 100 the most long. Above 80 or below 20, the trade is crowded. In bond futures, long means a bet on lower yields.

How to use it. Positioning is context, not a timing signal. An extreme shows which way the pain trade runs if price turns, because a crowded position has to be unwound into the move against it. Crowded trades can stay crowded for months, so look for an extreme together with price starting to move against the crowd. The data is three days old when it is published.

At a three-year extreme

Large speculators' net position at or above 80, or at or below 20, on the three-year COT index.

Market	Net position	Week change	Index	Reading
ZB UST bond (30y)	−150,393	+12,364	100	Crowded long (lower yields)
ZQ 30-day Fed funds	+513,581	+137,412	100	Crowded long (lower yields)
6E Euro FX	−71,574	−2,734	0	Crowded short
BTC Bitcoin	−3,979	+963	100	Crowded long
NG Natural gas	−206,317	−48,908	0	Crowded short
HE Lean hogs	−51,646	−4,833	0	Crowded short
SB Sugar #11	+237,711	−26,819	95	Crowded long
6C Canadian dollar	−96,747	−5,634	7	Crowded short
RB RBOB gasoline	+91,442	−2,270	92	Crowded long
SR3 SOFR 3-month	−2,535,985	−162,945	9	Crowded short (higher yields)
ZM Soybean meal	+168,714	−32,164	89	Crowded long
CC Cocoa	−10,940	−2,119	11	Crowded short

9 more markets are also at an extreme.

Biggest weekly swings

The largest changes in large speculators' net position this week, measured against open interest.

Market	Net position	Week change	Of open interest	Index
6L Brazilian real	+7,600	−11,077	−6.6%	59
PL Platinum	+1,765	−4,824	−5.8%	45
ZM Soybean meal	+168,714	−32,164	−5.3%	89
GF Feeder cattle	+14,194	+3,284	+5.1%	46
PA Palladium	−13,297	−1,303	−4.8%	17
ZQ 30-day Fed funds	+513,581	+137,412	+4.8%	100
BTC Bitcoin	−3,979	+963	+4.6%	100
ZC Corn	+81,113	−83,310	−4.5%	57

Positions as of the close on Tuesday, 27 October 2026, published Friday 30 October. Large speculators are leveraged funds in financial futures and managed money in commodities. Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders.

This note is published for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. See the full disclaimer in the footer.

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